If Baghdad Falls...

The nation and the world have been on high alert for over a week after militants from the al-Qaeda affiliated group the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) captured Mosul and Fallujah. After the fall of these two major Iraqi cities, the ISIS insurgents are on an uncontested march to Baghdad, the capital of Iraq. If the Iraqi government falls, coupled with ISIS' gains in an unstable Syria, many fear that al-Qaeda will use Iraq as a launching ground for terrorist attacks against the West, especially the United States. For this reason, United States president Barack Obama is considering air strikes in Iraq and is sending 300 "military advisers" to the Iraqi military. (Sending "military advisers" to a foreign war is nothing new for the United States. John F. Kennedy sent "military advisers" to Vietnam as the civil war there was beginning.)

IF Baghdad falls, don't expect ISIS to sit on their laurels and be content with Iraq. These militants come from an fundamentalist Islamic ideology. They see themselves on a mission to spread their brand of fundamental Islam throughout the world; it's their jihad. So, where would ISIS strike next?

Well, certainly ISIS would continue to make gains in Syria as its civil war rages on. However, don't expect Syria to fall like Iraq. Bashar al-Assad will continue his stranglehold on Syria using whatever means to do so with backing from Russia and Iran.

Jordan would likely be the next big target for ISIS. In Jordan, King Abdullah holds most of the power over the government. If the king were to fall, then ISIS would control the vast oil reserves in Jordan. It is estimated that 60% of Jordan houses oil. With this oil, ISIS could join the oil trade or use the oil to fuel further insurgencies and attacks. 

The fall of Jordan also provides ISIS with uninhibited access to Israel. ISIS abhors the Jewish (and Christian) presence in the Middle East. Surely, ISIS would join in the Palestinian cause to remove the Jewish state. ISIS would continue to persecute the Christians and Jewish citizens of the Middle East, leading to more refugees and more religious conflict.

We also could see a repeat of 1990, with and ISIS-controlled Iraq invading Kuwait. Like in 1990, Kuwait today controls, to a major extent, the world's oil trade. Oil prices worldwide would sky-rocket; some analysts predict nearly $5 per gallon.

After Jordan and Kuwait, some speculate that ISIS would start a campaign into Saudi Arabia. However, Saudi Arabia is a very large and powerful nation, and its fall would be unlikely. But, Saudi Arabia would definitely be on ISIS' radar screen. Saudi Arabia is home to 20% of the world's oil supplies, and if Saudi Arabia were to fall then oil prices worldwide would see a major spike. This would also boost nations with oil potential to start producing the fuel. These nations include the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Moreover, don't forget that ISIS is on a jihad for their faith. Suadi Arabia is home to the two holy cities of Islam: Medina and Mecca. Capturing Saudi Arabia and these cities would send a message to other Islamic nations that ISIS is a major player in the Middle East.

Last, don't expect ISIS to invade Iran. The ISIS insurgents are part of the Sunni branch of Islam, while Iran is part of the Shiite branch of Islam. The divide between the two branches originated after Muhammad died; the two branches disagreed over who should succeed Muhammad. As a result, the two branches are at odds, even today, over their faith. ISIS would not want to invade a Shiite Iran due to this religious divide.

With that said, let's remember that Baghdad is still controlled by the Iraqis. ISIS has not gained control of Iraq as of yet. None of these scenarios can be carried out as of now, but don't be surprised if they happen if ISIS topples Baghdad.