Geopolitics of the Papacy

The Catholic Church is emerging as a world diplomatic influence again after the relatively dormant papacy of Benedict XVI. United States President Barack Obama announced this week that he and Cuban president Raul Castro have agreed to reopen American-Cuban relations and that this agreement was brokered by Pope Francis.

It makes sense that Pope Francis would make his first attempts at diplomacy in the Western Hemisphere. Francis is the first Latin American pope and the first pope from outside of Europe since Gregory III of Syria in 741. Unlike Pope John Paul II, who is famous for condemning communism in Easter Europe after growing up a Pole in communist Poland, Francis isn't from Europe and therefore isn't as familiar with European problems and diplomacy. Instead, Francis chose an arena that he is familiar with as the former Archbishop of Buenos Aires - the Americas. So, Francis and the Vatican diplomats facilitated the talks between the United States and Cuba, ending over 50 years of cold relations between the two nations.

However, Francis is not limited to the troubles of the Western Hemisphere. The Vatican's location in the heart of Italy allows him to address the geopolitical issues of Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. In fact, Francis has already begun calling for a halt of religious persecution in the Middle East and successfully called for the release of Meriam Ibrahim, an Ethiopian Christian sentenced to death for her faith. While these examples demonstrate this pope's willingness to call out for those in need around the world, they do not actually involve any concrete diplomacy and influence as the United States-Cuba agreement did. However, such options will  be available to Francis now that he has already started work as a world diplomat.

As previously mentioned, the Vatican used to enjoy a large influence on world politics. From before the Middle Ages and into the Reformation, the Papacy had a large amount of authority over governments as it was considered to be the ultimate religious authority on earth. After the unification of Italy (of which the Pope did not approve), the Vatican lost its influence over politics until the rise of the fascists in Italy in the 1920's when the Vatican became a separate entity with the Lateran Treaty. However, the Vatican was not nearly restored to its previous prestige and influence until the papacy of John Paul II who was an ardent anti-communist. In the 1980's, the work of John Paul II as a diplomat was so important that many consider him to be as important as Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan in the fall of communism in Eastern Europe. John Paul II's successor was rather inactive in world diplomacy, but with this move by Pope Francis to reopen United States-Cuba relations, the Vatican may be returning as leader of world politics.

Teaching the Midterm Elections

The results of this year's midterm elections. Some states have not yet had Senate and/or gubernatorial races called. Those states have been shaded neither red nor blue.

The midterm elections provide a perfect opportunity to teach about geography! Examine the maps of results of the races. Have your students look for similarities between geographically close states (for example, the South). Explore social and historical connections that could explain the trends in color for certain geographic regions.

Midterm elections and election maps obviously also provide an opportunity to discuss the political system in the United States: the two party system, the Senate (especially term lengths and number of Senators per state), the House of Representatives (same distinguishing factors as the Senate), and the importance of governorships. Last, explain the importance of having a majority in the House and Senate, especially considering the political party of the president.

Will the Scottish Referendum Doom ISIS?

This week, Scottish voters rejected the opportunity to declare independence from the United Kingdom with 55.3% favoring to continue the union with the UK that has been officially been in place since 1707. Rejecting independence save Prime Minister David Cameron's authority as leader of the United Kingdom. Many analysts predicted that Cameron would be removed from his post if the Scots chose to secede and that Cameron would lose his credibility as Prime Minister. Surely, Scottish independence would have sent Cameron's administration spinning and scrambling to salvage its rule.

Such scrambling would force Cameron to become less active in talks for a global coalition to fight the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). First, Scotland houses all of the United Kingdom's nuclear submarines, and its independence would force the relocation of these, threatening the safety of the United Kingdom and NATO. Moreover, many Scottish separatists supported withdrawing from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization upon independence, weakening the group as it prepares to deal with the growing threat of ISIS as more violence appear imminent. United States President Barack Obama knew that Scottish independence would doom his plan to stop ISIS, tweeting the day before the referendum, "The UK is an extraordinary partner for America and a force for good in an unstable world. I hope it remains strong, robust and united."

Some intelligence experts postulated that ISIS was aware of the referendum's importance, too. The British professor Anthony Glees, a respected intelligence analyst, claimed that ISIS chose to execute Scottish humanitarian aid worker David Haines one week before the referendum to undermine the authority and credibility of Cameron.

The referendum comes during the same week as France's first airstrikes in Syria to combat ISIS and the Australian Federal Police's arrest of 15 ISIS-linked terrorists who allegedly planned to behead innocent civilians in highly populated areas. This was the largest counter-terrorism operation in Australia's history.

Will Russia Invade Ukraine? Part 2

Tensions are mounting in eastern Ukraine, as Ukrainian officials declared that 280 trucks that are supposed to be carrying humanitarian aid from Russia to the battle-weary Ukrainian city of Luhansk would not be permitted to cross the border into Ukraine. The spokesperson for Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council Andriy Lysenko has said that the convoy could not enter Ukraine because it had not been certified by the Red Cross. In fact, Lysenko showed video evidence that the trucks originated a military base in Russia. World leaders have expressed fears that sending Russian aid to Ukraine could be a precursor to a boots-on-the-ground invasion of Ukraine. Last week, United States President Barack Obama, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and British Prime Minister David Cameron issued statements which warned that an invasion would violate international law. However, many have accused this declaration as being too lenient, providing no consequences for Russia if it were to invade Ukraine.

If Russia were to invade Ukraine, it would not face much of a challenge.

Russia has been on a military buildup near the Ukraine border in recent days. Lysenko recently told the New York Times that Russia has 45,000 troops on the border backed up by 160 tanks, 1,360 armored vehicles, 390 artillery systems, 150 truck-mounted ground-to-ground rocket launchers, 192 fighter jets, and 137 helicopters. In fact, NATO Secretary General, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, told Reuters that there were no signs that Russia had withdrawn troops from the border and that a Russian invasion was "highly probable."

 Eastern Ukraine has been in complete control of the rebels since April, including control of the major cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. As a result, Russia would find the support of the people in eastern Ukraine, making their advance easy. The Russian military is better trained, better prepared for a conflict, and larger than the Ukrainian army; any military engagements between the two would, barring any unforeseen complications, result in a Russian victory, which could entice them to move towards Kiev.

Russia has already claimed Crimea from Ukraine through a referendum, and Russia would like control of the oil pipelines that cross Ukraine. In many ways, Russia and its president Vladimir Putin view Ukraine as its irredenta, as Ukraine was under control of Russia long before it became a Soviet Socialist Republic. In addition, the rebels in eastern Ukraine consider themselves part of "New Russia" - only after Putin coined the term.

MAP: ISIS Threatens Baghdad

MAP: The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria has gained footing in Iraq, threatening to topple the Iraqi government.

The fundamentalist Islamic militant group, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), which gained a foothold in unstable Syria, has recently pushed into Iraq. This past week ISIS overran two major Iraqi cities - Mosul and Fallujah - leaving the al-Qaeda affiliated group only 43 miles from Baghdad, home to the democratically elected government put in place after the ousting of Saddam Hussein. The United States has evacuated the American embassy in Baghdad as the ISIS insurgents begin an attempt to overrun the city.

The possibility of an ISIS-controlled Iraq threatens the progress made in the Iraq War of removing a terrorist-affiliated nation from the Middle East. In addition, ISIS would be free to overrun other Islamic nations like Jordan and, possibly, Saudi Arabia. If ISIS were to take Saudi Arabia, the effect on the world's petroleum trade would be crippling.Oil prices have already jumped 2 pounds per liter in the United Kingdom due to the ISIS insurgents. Saudi Arabia would also be a symbolic Islamic victory as the two holy cities of Islam - Medina and Mecca - are located in western Saudi Arabia along the Red Sea.

United States President Barack Obama is considering air strikes to stop the advance of the ISIS militants. However, United States intelligent officials have announced that it is "likely/probable" that the ISIS insurgents have gained control of the American-made Stinger missile. The Stinger missile is fired from the shoulder and can be used against enemy aircraft. The Stinger missiles may have been found by ISIS in one of the two weapons depots containing over over 400,000 weapons overrun by the insurgents.

What's going on in Thailand?

Last week, the Thai people awake to new government; a military coup overthrew the democratically elected government, claiming that the move was necessary to restore order after months of political instability. The overthrown government was elected three years ago in a landslide victory but now finds itself powerless.

Many Thai people have protested the junta, especially in the capital of Bangkok. However, the military has begun blocking public places where protests might occur. Thailand's deputy national police chief Somyot Poompanmoung announced that even small protests will not be permitted, claiming that they are "against the law." Protestors who do arrive are being detained; at least 70 people are in custody. On Thursday alone, 1,350 soldiers and police officers were deployed to halt any anti-coup demonstrations.

The military is also cracking down on technology access to its citizens. New channels such as CNN and BBC have been blocked and internal news outlets are censoring themselves in fear of being shut down. Facebook in Thailand was partially shut down on Wednesday, but the military government claims to have no role in that. However, many websites deemed threatening to the coup are being blocked.

The junta government has plans to hold elections but provided no clues to when that would take place. The United States, an ally to Thailand, responded that there was no reason to delay the elections. Military rule is nothing new to the Thai people. In 2006, another military takeover abolished the democracy, waiting over one year to hold elections.

The Geography of Libertarianism

Recently, Libertarianism has been gaining support as a third party throughout America. In the 2012 election, the Libertarian party nominated Gary Johnson who garnered over 1.2 million votes. Libertarians generally are fiscal conservatives and social liberals. Libertarians advocate for individual liberties. For example, many libertarians believe that the government does not have the right to define marriage but individual businesses have the right to deny service to homosexual couples on the basis of religious beliefs. Other important issues to libertarians often include states rights, free trade, legalization or decriminalization of marijuana, open immigration, and non-intervention.

To show where libertarianism is the strongest, we have created a map showing the relative percentage of voters who voted for Gary Johnson in the 2012 presidential election. Johnson did not appear on the ballot in Oklahoma, and he was a write-in candidate in Michigan.

Ukraine to Withdraw Troops from Crimea

The Ukrainian government announced that it is withdrawing its troops from Crimea. The announcement comes one day after Russian forces, which have occupied the peninsula since the Ukrainian parliament impeached former president Viktor Yanukovych, seized Ukrainian military bases. Ukrainian military units have been outnumbered by the Russian forces since the Russian occupation began. One Ukrainian general died on Tuesday when Russian troops seized a military base in Simferopol.

Following the death in Simferopol, Ukraine's acting government bashed the move by Russian troops, asserting that Russia had formally started a war. (Russian president Vladimir Putin does have permission to formally use military force in Crimea.) The announcement of withdrawing troops from Crimea is a sharp departure from Kiev's previous rhetoric and is largely seen as a retreat in order to keep the peace in the region.

On Sunday, the citizens of Crimea voted to secede from Ukraine and join Russia. However, Ukraine and Western nations denounced the referendum as unconstitutional and refused to recognize the result. Putin cited a referendum in Kosovo as the international legal basis for the vote. Regradless, Crimea was incorporated into Russia on Tuesday.

Crimea Votes to Join Russia

Crimean voters overwhelmingly voted to secede from Ukraine Sunday. Russian news agencies first broke the news citing exit polls. There was a high voter turnout for the secession vote as the great majority voted to break away from Ukraine and join Russia. Crimea's leader says he will apply with Russia to join the nation. Russian president Vladimir Putin says he will "obey the people's wishes."

Ukraine and the United States declared the referendum unconstitutional, and the Ukrainian parliament symbolically stripped the Crimean parliament of its powers just a day before the referendum. Putin, who has been authorized by the Russian parliament to use force in Ukraine, cited a referendum in Kosovo as precedent for this Crimean referendum.

Russian troops have occupied Crimea, home to a Russian naval fleet at Sevastopol, since the Ukrainian parliament impeached Viktor Yanukovych from the Ukrainian presidency. Yanukovych has declared the impeachment illegal and claims to still be the leader. Yanukovych is not currently in Ukraine, but in Russia. He says he will return when conditions allow.

Ukraine Tense Prior to Crimean Referendum

Russian troops near Ukraine's eastern border are participating in drills just one day before the Crimean referendum where the peninsula will vote as to whether to join Russia. Ukraine and Russia have been increasingly at odds. The two nations attempted, but failed, yesterday to work out a peace deal. In the absence of a peace deal, the Ukrainian parliament voted to strip the virtually autonomous Crimean parliament of its powers. The actions was rather symbolic and is not expected to impact the referendum in Crimea tomorrow.

Violence is also spreading throughout eastern Ukraine. Two died in Kharkiv last night in a shootout between Ukrainian nationalists and pro-Russian demonstrators. This comes one day after protests resulted in one death and 17 injuries in Donetsk, also in eastern Ukraine.

Crimea to Hold Referendum over Russian Control

Crimea announced today that it will hold a referendum on March 16. On that day, Crimeans will take the polls and decide whether or not it will remain part of the new Ukraine or become part of the nation that currently occupies the peninsula, Russia. This announcement was preceded by a 78-0 vote in the Crimean parliament in support of joining Russia. The temporary government of Ukraine has declared that the referendum is unconstitutional, but seeing as Russia has troops occupying Crimea, Ukraine can currently do little to prevent the referendum from taking place. Regardless, the interim president of Ukraine said that the interim government is actively working to stop the referendum. United States president Barack Obama has also said that the referendum violates international law.

Moreover, observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe were prevented from entering Crimea, says the Polish defense minister. These observers were stopped by unidentified men wearing army fatigues.

The European Union threatened to freeze economic assets to Russia if it's troops remain in Crimea. Russia had previously warned that it would retaliate against any sanctions. It is unclear what effect the potential situation would have as both the European Union and Russia have billions of dollars invested in each other.

Ukraine has set May 25 as an election date after President Viktor Yanukovych was removed from office by the Ukrainian parliament. If the referendum takes place, then Crimea could already be part of Russia.

Developments in Ukraine

• The new Ukrainian govrernment and Russian officials have begun holding talks to discuss the situation in Crimea. This weekend, Russia sent troops to Crimea and is occupying the peninsula. No fighting has occurred as of Tuesday morning.
• Russian president Vladimir Putin defended the invasion if Ukraine, saying that Russia has a right to protect ethnic Russians in Crimea and that the deposition of Viktor Yanukovych was a coup. On Saturday, the Russian parliament voted unanimously to allow Putin to use the military to intervene in Ukraine. On Tuesday, Putin said that force would be a last resort.
• Turkey has announced that a Russian plane was seen flying along its Black Sea coast. The Crimean peninsula juts into the northern part of the Black Sea and Turkey's northern border is the southern part. Turkey controls the Bosporus and Dardenelles, two straights that connect the Mediterranean and Black Seas. These two straights are strategic to trade in Eastern Europe.
• The United States announced that it will give Ukraine $1 billion in energy aid. Many have speculated that Russia's interest in Ukraine lies mainly in the gas lines that run through the nation. Russia, in recent years, has grown to be the major energy provider to Europe.
• Russia announced plans to build a bridge linking Crimea and Russia. The plan has been discussed for several years, but Russia announced that it would proceed with plans this week. The bridge would allow Russia access to Crimea without having to travel through mainland Ukraine.
• United States Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Kiev today. He visited a shrine to those who died while protesting former president Viktor Yanukovych. Kerry has shown his support for the new government of Ukraine.
• While Russia has not had any specific sanctions put against them, the United States and NATO are discussing still-ambiguous economic sanctions against Russia. In addition, the G-7 nations (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States) have suspended preparations to meet in Sochi, Russia, for a G-8 summit until Russia ends its occupation of Crimea. 

Does Russia Have Anything to Lose?

This week, there has been much speculation on how Russia will respond to the Ukrainian parliament's impeachment of Viktor Yanukovych. Friday, the provisional government of Ukraine accused Russia of an "armed invasion" after reports of 2,000 Russian troops entering the pro-Russian Crimea. Russia does own the port of Sevastopol on Crimea as a naval base. President Obama has warned Russia of the "costs" of an invasion without specifying those costs.

If Russia were to invade Ukraine, it has a secure sphere of influence in the surrounding area. Russia has a military presence south of Ukraine in Moldova, north in Belarus, and east in the Caucasus region of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia. This map below shows the nations who view Russia more favorable than the United States, according to 2013 polls.

Russia has a strong influence in Asia and the Middle East. If the a war pitting Russia against the Western powers were to break out, Russia would have "home field advantage" and strong geographical support. Russia has historically (following World War II during the Cold War) maintained a strong influence in Eastern Europe, especially those nations in the Balkan Peninsula.

In short, Russia has the Black Sea surrounded in terms of easily influenced and manipulated nations. Following a strong statement to the world at the Sochi Winter Olympics, Russia might have nothing to lose by invading Ukraine. The invasion would secure Russian interests in politics and economics as Ukraine is the crossroads for Russia's vast and prosperous oil pipelines. In order for the West to reach site of the war, it would have to travel through nations that would, hypothetically, become hostile to their intervention. That is, of course, if the West decides to intervene militarily following a Russian invasion. The harshest claim warning Russian intervention has come from President Obama, the leader of the most powerful Western nation: Invading Ukraine will have "costs."

Will Russia Invade Ukraine?

Tensions are mounting in Ukraine as pro-Russian militants have taken a Crimean airport, shouting "Crimea is Russia!" Russia maintains political and economic interests in Ukraine despite Viktor Yanukovych's removal from office. In addition, Russia controls a naval base at Sevastopol, Crimea, and Russian president Vladimir Putin ordered a surprise military drill in two military districts near Ukraine. Sevastopol is Russia's only port on warm water. (This means that Russia's other ports freeze over during the winter.) A Russian military prescence near the volatile nation has left many wondering if Russia will intervene militarily. United States Secretary of State John Kerry has urged Russia no avoid a military intervention. On Saturday, Russian President Vladimir Putin asked the Russian parliament to allow Russian military intervention in Ukraine. That same day, the parliament voted unanimously to allow military action.

Regardless, Russia reportedly has landed 2,000 troops into Crimea. The move has prompted the provisional Ukrainian government to accuse Russia of an "armed invasion." The United States has claimed to have monitored Russian movements "into and out of Crimea" on both land and sea. These movements "deeply concern" President Obama who addressed the media Friday afternoon.

Russia faced a similar situation in 2008 in South Ossetia near the nation's border with Georgia. South Ossetia tried to break away from Georgia, and Russia sent in troops to quash the Georgian forces. As a result, Russia gained control of South Ossetia. Invading Ukraine would be a controversial and a large gamble. Ukraine's acting president warned that Russia's invading of Crimea would be considered a "military aggression." In 2008, neither the European Union nor NATO arrived to protect the Georgian holdings.  President Obama warned Russia that the military intervention against Ukraine's "sovereignty" would have "costs" and that the United States would stand with the international community. These "costs" were not specified, and the international response to a Russian invasion is currently unclear.

Egypt's Government Resigns

In the midst of turmoil in Ukraine and Venezuela, Egypt's interim prime minister announced that his cabinet has resigned. The surprise resignation comes as workers strike and families suffer a shortage of cooking gas. It is believed that the move was made so that the defense minister could run for president. The current, military-backed government was formed following the deposition of the Muslim Brotherhood-backed government under Mohammed Morsi. New elections are expected to be held in April.

Swiss Voters Turn Back on EU Agreement

This week 50.3% of Swiss voters supported a referendum to reintroduce strict immigration requirements from European Union nations. The "yes" vote essentially repeals an agreement between Switzerland and the European Union allowing greater movement between European nations. Switzerland is not part of the EU but has recently aligned its policies with the organization. The European Commission has responded saying that the vote "goes against the principle of free movement of persons between the EU and Switzerland."

An analysis of the vote shows divisions between the French, Italian and German speakers in Switzerland. A division between to three groups has long been present in Swiss politics. The French speakers and many German speakers voted against the referendum, while the Italian speakers and the remainder of the German speakers voted for the referendum.

Iran Warships Near US Borders

Iran has deliberately sent its warships closer to the US borders in the Atlantic Ocean. The Commander of Iran's Northern Navy fleet has been quoted that the move towards the United states "has a message." Iran hopes to spread its navy throughout international waters, including toward Antarctica. Iran and the United States have been butting heads in recent years with the still-ongoing civil war in Syria and Iran's nuclear weaponry. This move comes the day before that Iran tested two missiles and aired an animation showing the bombing of American and Israeli ships.

The movement of navies has sparked many conflicts throughout history. Alfred Thayar Mahan once postulated that a strong navy is key to becoming a world power. Germany from 1905-1906 moved its warships toward Morocco in order to break up the alliance between France and England. This so-called Moroccan Crisis has been named as a cause of World War I. Warships have also caused other crises such as the Spanish-American War.

President Obama's New Climate Hubs

On February 5, President Obama announced the creation of climate hubs, one for each region of the nation. The hubs are supposed to analyze local climate in order to help farmers in a "changing and shifting climate." The 7 homes of the projects are as follows:

1. Ames, IA
2. Durham, NH
3. Raleigh, NC
4. Fort Collins, CO
5. El Reno, OK
6. Corvallis, OR
7. Las Cruces, NM

What do you think of these climate hubs? Share your thoughts!

Winter Olympics Travel Warning

The Opening Ceremony for the 2014 Winter Olympics is scheduled for February 7, but how many Americans will be there. The United States State Department has issued a travel warning to Americans planning on visiting Sochi, Russia for for the Games. The area has recently been rocked by violence and terror attacks. The United States will have two warships in the Black Sea (on which Sochi lies) in case of a need to extract American citizens. These threats are coupled with fears by many homosexual athletes for their safety. Russia's government, including President Vladimir Putin, have recently cracked down on protests by homosexuals. Such actions have been labeled as "propaganda" and are banned from being shown to minors. In the past, Putin has equated homosexuality with pedophilia. Any people who violate Russia's ban on "propaganda," could face jail, fines, or deportation.

Ukraine's Prime Minister Resigns Amid Turmoil

Ukraine's prime minister turned in his resignation today before a session of parliament that Ukraine's protesters have called "Judgement Day." Mykola Azarov resigned amid turmoil where protesters have been calling for Ukraine's president, Viktor Yanukovych, to resign. Instead, Yanukovych has offered the position of prime minister to a leader of the opposition but also has been turned down twice.

At that session of parliament, they repealed the anti-protest laws that caused an escalation in the demonstrations.