Will Russia Invade Ukraine? Part 2

Tensions are mounting in eastern Ukraine, as Ukrainian officials declared that 280 trucks that are supposed to be carrying humanitarian aid from Russia to the battle-weary Ukrainian city of Luhansk would not be permitted to cross the border into Ukraine. The spokesperson for Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council Andriy Lysenko has said that the convoy could not enter Ukraine because it had not been certified by the Red Cross. In fact, Lysenko showed video evidence that the trucks originated a military base in Russia. World leaders have expressed fears that sending Russian aid to Ukraine could be a precursor to a boots-on-the-ground invasion of Ukraine. Last week, United States President Barack Obama, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and British Prime Minister David Cameron issued statements which warned that an invasion would violate international law. However, many have accused this declaration as being too lenient, providing no consequences for Russia if it were to invade Ukraine.

If Russia were to invade Ukraine, it would not face much of a challenge.

Russia has been on a military buildup near the Ukraine border in recent days. Lysenko recently told the New York Times that Russia has 45,000 troops on the border backed up by 160 tanks, 1,360 armored vehicles, 390 artillery systems, 150 truck-mounted ground-to-ground rocket launchers, 192 fighter jets, and 137 helicopters. In fact, NATO Secretary General, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, told Reuters that there were no signs that Russia had withdrawn troops from the border and that a Russian invasion was "highly probable."

 Eastern Ukraine has been in complete control of the rebels since April, including control of the major cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. As a result, Russia would find the support of the people in eastern Ukraine, making their advance easy. The Russian military is better trained, better prepared for a conflict, and larger than the Ukrainian army; any military engagements between the two would, barring any unforeseen complications, result in a Russian victory, which could entice them to move towards Kiev.

Russia has already claimed Crimea from Ukraine through a referendum, and Russia would like control of the oil pipelines that cross Ukraine. In many ways, Russia and its president Vladimir Putin view Ukraine as its irredenta, as Ukraine was under control of Russia long before it became a Soviet Socialist Republic. In addition, the rebels in eastern Ukraine consider themselves part of "New Russia" - only after Putin coined the term.