Could Russia Have Lost in Crimea Referendum?

Crimea announced this week that it will hold a referendum on March 16 where its voters will choose whether to remain part of Ukraine or become part of Russia. This came after the Crimean parliament voted unanimously to join Russia. Ukraine and the international community have condemned to the referendum as unconstitutional, and the interim government of Ukraine is "actively working" to prevent the referendum. However, that is going to be difficult as Russian troops are currently occupying Crimea. That leaves Ukraine with two options:

1. Ukraine attempts to stop the referendum. Ukraine currently has not political power to stop such a referendum because of Russia's occupation. For Ukraine to prevent the referendum from occurring, Russian troops must leave Crimea. Considering that the Russian parliament has given Russian President Vladimir Putin permission to use force in Crimea, Russia is not going to withdraw from the peninsula. Therefore, Ukraine would then have to send in troops to end the Russian occupation. If Ukraine were to send in troops, then Russia would then call Ukraine an aggressor, allowing a war where Russia would take eastern Ukraine, if not all of Ukraine. 
2. Ukraine allows the referendum to occur and hopes that the Crimeans choose to remain part of Ukraine.
1. If Crimea votes to join Russia, then Russia gains the peninsula with its coveted warm-water ports. And if Crimea leaves Ukraine, then a domino effect could occur. The eastern Ukrainian provinces could, one-by-one, vote to join Russia, too. The more of Ukraine that Russia has, the more control of the lucrative oil pipelines that criss-cross Ukraine.
2. If Crimea votes to remain with Ukraine, then Russia can just keep its troops in Crimea under the same pretense as is currently is. Essentially, nothing would change; Russia would basically control Crimea, storming bases and denying foreigners entry to the peninsula.

As you can see, Russia has nothing to lose with the Crimean referendum. In fact, Russia has nothing to lose for even occupying Crimea. Any economic sanctions against Russia from the European Union would cripple Europe as well because both groups have invested billions of dollars in each other. Russia has also claimed that any sanctions placed on Russia would "hit [the] US like a boomerang." The situation worries Ukraine so much that its interim prime minister is traveling to Washington this week to discuss the situation.

As for Ukraine, new elections have been set for May 25. By that time, Crimea may have left the nation in favor of Russia. Other provinces may be on their way, too.