The current turmoil in Ukraine poses a grave threat to the United States in the future. A weak Ukraine is subject to Russian influence, which has been spreading quickly throughout the Middle East, the Baltic States, and the Balkan Peninsula. Russia already manipulates Belarus near the Baltic Coast. The civil war that is ravaging Syria has brought Iran and Russia into a near alliance, not to mention the amount of influence that alliance has in Syria. If the United States continues to become less involved in Egypt and its popularity there continues to dwindle, Russia could jump in and gain influence in Egypt, especially with a new set of elections in Egypt on the horizon. That would surround one of the United States' greatest allies, Israel, by a nation that has not necessarily been very helpful to the United States recently.
First and foremost, Russia spurned the United States by refusing to turn over Edward Snowden after he caused a "blizzard" of reaction in the United States. President Obama sought to have Snowden return to the United States as a traitor, but Russia refused to deliver him to the United States. Russia and the United States oppose each other on the crisis in Syria, causing many problems. Russia backs the Syrian president Bashar al-Assad who has been found to use chemical weaponry against his own people. (Let's hope Ukraine never comes to that...) And, with the uneasy relationship heading into a Winter Olympics that has questionable security (so much so that the United States has two warships in the Black Sea ready to extract American citizens at a moment's notice), who knows what Russia will do next?
Increasing its sphere of influence is nothing new to Russia and the Soviet Union. Joseph Stalin was given the task of rebuilding Eastern European governments after World War Two. Winston Churchill and Franklin Roosevelt told him to set up free elections in those nations. Instead, Stalin set up elections where only communists were permitted to run for office. Thus, Stalin effected increased the sphere of influence when these nations were at their weakest. While never incorporated into the Soviet Union, these Warsaw Pact nations were puppets. In fact, when communism was threatened by a people's revolt in 1956 (Hungary) and 1968 (Czechoslovakia - the Prague Spring), the Soviet Union sent in troops to smash the protests. These revolts prompted the Brezhnev Doctrine which stated that the Soviet Union could intervene to protect communism in any communist nation.
Ultimately, I hope that Ukraine becomes stable and pro-Western, but I fear that Russia will sneak in and make another puppet state. The United States does not need another Cold War.
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
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