Does Russia Have Anything to Lose?

This week, there has been much speculation on how Russia will respond to the Ukrainian parliament's impeachment of Viktor Yanukovych. Friday, the provisional government of Ukraine accused Russia of an "armed invasion" after reports of 2,000 Russian troops entering the pro-Russian Crimea. Russia does own the port of Sevastopol on Crimea as a naval base. President Obama has warned Russia of the "costs" of an invasion without specifying those costs.

If Russia were to invade Ukraine, it has a secure sphere of influence in the surrounding area. Russia has a military presence south of Ukraine in Moldova, north in Belarus, and east in the Caucasus region of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia. This map below shows the nations who view Russia more favorable than the United States, according to 2013 polls.

Russia has a strong influence in Asia and the Middle East. If the a war pitting Russia against the Western powers were to break out, Russia would have "home field advantage" and strong geographical support. Russia has historically (following World War II during the Cold War) maintained a strong influence in Eastern Europe, especially those nations in the Balkan Peninsula.

In short, Russia has the Black Sea surrounded in terms of easily influenced and manipulated nations. Following a strong statement to the world at the Sochi Winter Olympics, Russia might have nothing to lose by invading Ukraine. The invasion would secure Russian interests in politics and economics as Ukraine is the crossroads for Russia's vast and prosperous oil pipelines. In order for the West to reach site of the war, it would have to travel through nations that would, hypothetically, become hostile to their intervention. That is, of course, if the West decides to intervene militarily following a Russian invasion. The harshest claim warning Russian intervention has come from President Obama, the leader of the most powerful Western nation: Invading Ukraine will have "costs."