Will Russia Invade Ukraine?

Tensions are mounting in Ukraine as pro-Russian militants have taken a Crimean airport, shouting "Crimea is Russia!" Russia maintains political and economic interests in Ukraine despite Viktor Yanukovych's removal from office. In addition, Russia controls a naval base at Sevastopol, Crimea, and Russian president Vladimir Putin ordered a surprise military drill in two military districts near Ukraine. Sevastopol is Russia's only port on warm water. (This means that Russia's other ports freeze over during the winter.) A Russian military prescence near the volatile nation has left many wondering if Russia will intervene militarily. United States Secretary of State John Kerry has urged Russia no avoid a military intervention. On Saturday, Russian President Vladimir Putin asked the Russian parliament to allow Russian military intervention in Ukraine. That same day, the parliament voted unanimously to allow military action.

Regardless, Russia reportedly has landed 2,000 troops into Crimea. The move has prompted the provisional Ukrainian government to accuse Russia of an "armed invasion." The United States has claimed to have monitored Russian movements "into and out of Crimea" on both land and sea. These movements "deeply concern" President Obama who addressed the media Friday afternoon.

Russia faced a similar situation in 2008 in South Ossetia near the nation's border with Georgia. South Ossetia tried to break away from Georgia, and Russia sent in troops to quash the Georgian forces. As a result, Russia gained control of South Ossetia. Invading Ukraine would be a controversial and a large gamble. Ukraine's acting president warned that Russia's invading of Crimea would be considered a "military aggression." In 2008, neither the European Union nor NATO arrived to protect the Georgian holdings.  President Obama warned Russia that the military intervention against Ukraine's "sovereignty" would have "costs" and that the United States would stand with the international community. These "costs" were not specified, and the international response to a Russian invasion is currently unclear.